Is Hanwha’s first place in the exhibition game meaningless? 10G or more is meaningful… PS probability 62.5%

“It is meaningless to do well in demonstration games.”

Every spring during an exhibition game, professional baseball coaches say this. As it is literally an exhibition game, the result itself has no meaning. It is the time to focus on preparing for the season by checking the players throughout rather than fighting with all your might and winning the game.

A total of 39 demonstration games were held from 1983 to 2022, except for 2020, which was omitted due to Corona 19, but the actual ranking and clear trend are not revealed.

The first-place team in the demonstration game won the Korean Series seven times that year, but the ratio was similar, with eight times finishing last. The number of advances and elimination in the postseason is also about the same, 23 and 24, respectively. It is not wrong to say that the results of the demonstration game are meaningless because the probability is 50%.

Compared to the regular season, which has more than 100 games, there are not many samples of demonstration games with fewer games. So far, there are 18 exhibition games that have been played in less than 10 games. Based on 21 demonstration games played in at least 10 games, there is some correlation with the regular season rankings.

Based on this standard, the first place in the demonstration game has won three times: Lotte in 1992, Samsung in 2002, and SK in 2007. Conversely, it came in last three times, with Lotte in 1997, LG in 2006, and KT in 2017. The probability of winning and last place is the same, but if you set it as a criterion for advancing to the postseason, the probability of first place fall baseball in the demonstration game increases. Of the 24 teams that ranked first in the demonstration game, 15 teams advanced to the postseason, with 6 more than the 9 teams that were eliminated. The probability is 62.5%, which is quite high.

It also means that Hanwha, who took first place with a win rate of 7.5% in 13 demonstration games this year, has a high possibility of fighting in the round of 5. Hanwha also took first place in the exhibition game in 2021, two years ago, but then only played 7 games (6 wins and 1 loss). Compared to that time, the performance has improved remarkably. Internal competition intensified as veteran players such as Chae Eun-seong, Lee Tae-tae, Oh Seon-jin, and Lee Myung-ki, who joined as free agents, and young players such as Moon Dong-ju, Kim Seo-hyun, and Moon Hyun-bin, who had been in their first or second year, joined the team.

Hanwha coach Carlos Subero said, “Compared to two years ago, the team has become much more mature. Veteran leadership has never been this strong. The biggest difference is that veterans are leading the team on and off the field. Of course, we did a bit more full-power than other teams, but the overall depth was strengthened by the growth of the newly recruited veterans and young players. It will be a pity no matter who goes to the second group,” he said, showing confidence in his changed power. 스포츠토토

On the other hand, how was the season performance of the lowest-ranked team in the demonstration game? Based on 10 games or more, out of a total of 20 teams, 5 teams advance to the postseason, and the probability of dropping out of fall baseball reaches 75%. Five of those teams also finished last in the actual season. Kiwoom (4 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw), which is considered a favorite for the championship, is at the bottom of this year’s demonstration game. The team’s performance itself does not have much meaning, but the past probability foreshadows Kiwoom’s struggle.

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